seems to be heading -- i would still bet in one towards a sort of more federal structure and one where angela merkel becomes an ever more powerful figure. and this is -- that's a complicated world for whoever becomes the next american president. but the more immediate problems in europe are to do with the euro zone. >> rose: you would add to that? >> i would simply add that i think you have all of that against the backdrop of a slowing global economy. you have to global economy growing at the slowest pace since the great recession of 2009. you've had disappointing economic outcomes here and in europe, particularly and in china and, frankly, in the rest of the emerging world, too. >> rose: brazil or anywhere else. >> absolutely, brazil, india. and the big question, john is absolutely right, is the political uncertainty. huge political uncertainty here. what happens with the fiscal cliff could be a catastrophe if we go over it and stay over it. what happens in europe? we're actually slightly less -- is there political will? there we can get to this but i'm less pessimistic than i've been for a